Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
